Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Fed Policy

Federal Reserve policies focused
Posted: 23 Nov 2010 01:59 PM PST
This blog posting was originally an article in the Sunday, November 21, edition of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The article was written by Atlanta Fed Senior Vice President and Research Director David Altig.

On Nov. 3, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—the group within the Federal Reserve charged with formulating monetary policy for the United States—announced its plans to purchase, over the course of the next eight months, up to $600 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities.

In many circles (maybe including yours), this decision has generated some controversy. A good deal of the controversy revolves around the view that this monetary policy decision is aimed at buying up government debt for the purpose of making it easier for the country to continue on the path of deficit spending. This view is inaccurate.

I understand the concerns that are triggered when the Fed announces a significant Treasury purchase program at a time when the fiscal situation is so challenging and unsettled. Be it the hyperinflations of Germany's Weimar Republic in the period between the two world wars; Hungary after World War II; or the more recent case of Zimbabwe, most of us have heard or read of extreme examples of countries that ended up creating big problems trying to finance government by printing money.

Generating government revenues via the printing press is a policy that is often referred to as "monetizing the debt." I think the emphasis in that sentence should be on the word policy. A policy is really a sort of rule—sometimes explicit, sometimes only implicit—that lays out a decision maker's objectives and how they are going to be attained. The objective of a policy of monetizing the debt is to create inflation as a means of lowering the burden of government debt by lowering the value of the debt and interest the government must repay in inflation-adjusted terms.

Monetizing debt is decidedly not the current policy of the Federal Reserve, at least not according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Speaking at a recent conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chairman Bernanke was unequivocal: "We are not in the business of trying to create inflation."

So what business is the Fed in?

In short, the Fed's so-called dual mandate charges the FOMC with promoting sustainable growth and low and stable inflation. Though the economy is moving forward, it is doing so at a pace that is only slowly yielding job growth. This forward momentum has not yet proved robust or sustained enough to dent the unemployment rate.

More important, the economic landscape at the end of the summer was colored by the continuation of a declining inflation trend that was bleeding into expectations about the probability of deflation. In a still-recovering economy with very low interest rates, the emergence of deflation expectations would be a most unwelcome development that could seriously impede the prospect for continued recovery.

As Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has said, stabilizing inflation expectations is a key to policy success, and "managing inflation expectations requires following through with policy actions consistent with stated objectives—in this case ensuring that inflation trends remain in a desired zone. The FOMC's November decision should be seen in that light."

The policy represented by the November decision appears to be working. As markets came to expect the November announcement, price expectations that had been declining all summer began to stabilize and have now returned to pre-summer levels.

Could the policy be too successful? That is, there a risk that the policy will overshoot and replace declining inflation rates with too-high inflation rates?

There are, of course, always risks to action and inaction. Now that the FOMC's action has apparently mitigated the risk of a recovery-threatening disinflationary spiral, at some point it will be appropriate to turn attention to inflation risks. As President Lockhart recently commented, we at the Atlanta Fed are confident these decisions will be made independent of fiscal considerations.

The current focus is on rising commodity prices, and the Federal Reserve, including the Atlanta Fed, is watching those developments too.

As one of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks charged with bringing a real-time sense of the economy to the monetary policy process, the Atlanta Fed queries hundreds of contacts every month. In general, our contacts, while acknowledging some rising cost pressures, do not indicate they are likely to respond with price hikes of their own.

But we will keep asking, watching for signs that things are changing, and preparing in the event that a change in course is warranted.

And this vigilance is precisely the point. Intentions do matter, and President Lockhart has made his very clear: "Rest assured, should inflation begin to move above desired levels, I am confident the FOMC will work hard to keep it from getting away from us."

By Dave Altig, senior vice president and research director at the Atlanta Fed

 

Monday, November 22, 2010

Funny

A gas station owner in Mississippi was trying to increase his sales. So he put up a sign that read, "Free Sex with Fill-Up."

Soon a local citizen pulled in, filled his tank and asked for his free sex.

The owner told him to pick a number from 1 to 10. If he guessed correctly he would get his free sex.

The citizen, some would say redneck, guessed 8, and the proprietor said, "You were close.  The number was 7. Sorry.  No sex this time."

A week later, the same redneck, along with his brother, Bubba, pulled in for another fill-up.

Again he asked for his free sex.

The proprietor again gave him the same story, and asked him to guess the correct number.

The redneck guessed 2 this time.

The proprietor said, "Sorry, it was 3. You were close, but no free sex this time."

As they were driving away, the redneck said to his brother, "I think that game is rigged, and he doesn't really give away free sex."

Bubba replied, "No it ain't, Billy Ray. It ain't rigged. My wife won twice last week."

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Funny

A man goes to see the Rabbi.  "Rabbi, something terrible is happening and I have to talk to you about it."

The Rabbi asked, "What's wrong?"

The man replied, "My wife is poisoning me."

The Rabbi, very surprised by this, asks, "How can that be?"

The man pleads, "I'm telling you, I'm certain she's poisoning me - what should I do?"

The Rabbi then offers, "Tell you what.  Let me talk to her, I'll see what I can find out and I'll let you know."

A week later the Rabbi calls the man and says, "I spoke to her on the phone for three hours. You want my advice?"

The man said yes and the Rabbi replied, "Take the poison."

Monday, November 15, 2010

Facebook

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Facebook trotted out an all-in-one messaging tool on Monday that pools users' email, instant and text messages, taking on Google Inc's and Yahoo Inc's popular email platforms.

Addressing speculation the world's largest social networking site was planning a "Gmail-killer," Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said the new system will let users own "facebook.com" addresses, but stressed it did not stop at email.

It also lets users send instant and text messages in addition to standard email and Facebook notes, he said.

"This is not an email killer. This is a messaging system that includes email as one part of it," Zuckerberg told reporters at the swanky St. Regis hotel.

Zuckerberg, who said more than 350 million of Facebook's half-billion users now actively send and receive messages on his website, did not see communications being email-based in future.

While people will not stop using email immediately, more and more will shift to an integrated, cross-platform mode of communications such as Facebook, Zuckerberg argued.

More than 4 billion messages get sent everyday through Facebook. Its new messaging platform will incorporate a number of features, including an inbox devoted to a user's friends and contacts on Facebook, and another for other mail and messages.

Facebook and Google's intensifying rivalry is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the future of the Internet. The industry is closely watching their pitched struggle for Web surfers' time online, advertising dollars, and increasingly costly Silicon Valley talent.

(Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic and Edwin Chan; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Richard Chang)

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

2012

Democrats' Losses Could Grow in 2012
By Josh Kraushaar | Wednesday, November 10, 2010 | 06:00:13 AM

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images
Updated at 8:30 a.m. on November 10.
It’s something of a professional hazard to make predictions this far out before the next election. Witness Karl Rove’s anticipation early in the Bush years of a permanent Republican majority, or James Carville’s boast in early 2009 that Democrats would dominate the political landscape for the next 40 years – a prediction off by 38 years.
But there are some telltale signs of what 2012 is going to look like, and it doesn’t take a crystal ball to understand that the short-term trends look dismal for congressional Democrats. Even if Democrats turn their political fortunes around, they’re still likely to lose seats in the Senate and will be hard-pressed to make inroads in the House, thanks to factors entirely out of their control.
The numbers tell the story in the Senate: The president’s party will be playing defense, with 23 Democratic-held seats up for grabs. By comparison, only 10 Republican Senate seats will be in play, most in solidly Republican states. It’s the most lopsided disparity for any party since 1980, when Democrats lost 12 Senate seats.
And the map where all the top races are being contested is awfully daunting for Democrats. Of the 23 seats Democrats will be defending, eight are in Republican-friendly or battleground states: Nebraska, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Ohio, and Florida.
Other Democratic senators, like Bob Casey (Pa.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) also could face competitive races if the environment doesn’t improve significantly for their party.
The only two states where Democrats look to have a fighting chance of picking up Republican Senate seats are Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (scandal-plagued John Ensign). Even a Democratic landslide in 2012 would be unlikely to yield gains, given that most GOP senators up for reelection represent safely Republican states like Utah, Mississippi, and Texas.
There are already signs of strain among Democrats up for reelection in 2012. Sen.-elect Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., won his seat by trumpeting his differences with President Obama on such key issues as health care and cap-and-trade, and with a race for a full term just two years away, there’s no reason to believe Manchin is going to change his maverick tune any time soon. Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) hasn’t committed to running for a second term; if he retires, there isn’t much of a Democratic bench left in the Old Dominion, while former Sen. George Allen looks poised to run again for his old seat. (Paging Tim Kaine!)
Put simply, holding a Democratic majority at 53 seats would take a herculean effort, and even holding a bare majority would be an accomplishment. There’s a good reason why Majority Leader Harry Reid has been hard-pressed to find any one of his colleagues willing to chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2012.
In the House, the Republican wave couldn’t have come at a better time for the ascendant party. The GOP now has unilateral control of redistricting in key battleground states for the upcoming election cycle. That will allow the GOP to protect many of their newfound majority-makers and redistrict other Democrats out of existence. And that’s on top of reapportionment. The states slated to gain House seats – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Washington -- as a whole tilt in favor of Republicans. The ones projected to lose representation are predominantly Democratic: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
The GOP’s massive gains in state legislatures mean they enter 2012 with as big an advantage in drawing districts as they’ve ever had. Many vulnerable Republicans will find themselves running in more favorable districts, while the party can expect to benefit from newly-created districts designed to their advantage.
Republicans fully control redistricting in 15 states, including the battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. They control the mapmaking for 193 House districts, compared to 44 for the Democrats.
The implications are significant for 2012. Take North Carolina, for example. It was a rare bright spot for House Democrats, who hung on to three of four contested seats despite the wipeout against the party in the South. Democrats still hold a 7-6 majority in the congressional delegation, thanks to a gerrymandered map drawn by state Democrats for generations.
That’s likely to change with Republicans winning control of the legislature for the first time in history. Reps. Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell could easily find their careers in peril, if the new lines exclude African-American constituencies from their districts that have been crucial to their political successes.
Republicans have the ability to expand their congressional majorities in other battleground states. In Pennsylvania, unfettered control of redistricting will allow the GOP to draw a Democrat out of office. In Ohio, which will likely lose two House seats, Republicans will be able to better protect its five incoming freshmen, and probably will be able to force two Democrats (from the Cleveland area) to square off against each other.
Republican State Legislative Committee Executive Director Chris Jankowski estimated the GOP will gain between 25 and 30 additional House seats from the reapportionment and redistricting process alone, a number that makes it all the more difficult for Democrats to win back the seats necessary to retake the majority. Republicans already are slated to hold between 241 and 244 seats in the new Congress, their largest majority since 1946.
Adding insult to injury, Republicans effectively picked off nearly two dozen Blue Dog Democrats, many of whom had been entrenched in their seats. Of the 48 Democratic-held districts won by John McCain in the 2008 election, Republicans picked off 36 of them. In the past, Democrats' ability to consistently hold deeply conservative districts provided a crucial bulwark for the party's majorities.
Democrats aren’t likely to contest many of those seats again. Good luck electing a Democrat in the seats that Reps. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), or John Spratt (D-S.C.) currently hold, to name a few, especially if Nancy Pelosi remains the face of the House Democrats.
Pelosi’s decision to stick around as minority leader is another factor that bodes well for House Republicans protecting their majorities in 2012. Moderate Democrats, the kind necessary to take back a majority, are already fretting that her continued presence for the next two years will depress Democratic recruiting in swing districts, prevent Democrats from turning the page on a disastrous year, and fuel Republican fundraising (even as she’s a very effective fundraiser herself).
The Democrats empowering her return to leadership are the ones who hail from safe districts and don’t have to worry about getting reelected. Many defeated Democrats would like to make a comeback, but their paths will be tougher with Pelosi in charge. One Democratic campaign manager whose boss lost in a northeastern swing district says her disapproval rating was near 60 percent in the district, with her approval rating in the teens.
“Obama wasn’t the reason we lost. It was because of Pelosi,” the strategist said. “She was a turnout machine – for the other side.”
Two years is an eternity in politics. President Obama’s popularity is poised to rebound, and Republicans could certainly overreach now that they’re in charge of the House. But fundamentals also matter. And the structural changes to the House race map and the defensive posture of Senate Democrats portend a very difficult cycle for Democrats.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Afghan Update

Coalition, Afghan Forces Detain Numerous Insurgent Leaders

Compiled from International Security Assistance Force Joint Command News Releases

WASHINGTON, Nov. 9, 2010 - Coalition and Afghan forces have captured multiple Taliban leaders involved in enemy operations in Afghanistan in recent days, military officials reported.

Afghan and International Security Assistance Force security forces captured a Taliban leader who is believed to be responsible for supplying weapons and coordinating insurgent attacks, along with three of his associates, during an intelligence-driven overnight operation in Zabul province's Shah Joy district.

As the partnered force approached the targeted compound, they saw a bag thrown from a window and found it contained bomb-making materials.

Meanwhile, ISAF officials confirmed the capture during a Nov. 7 overnight operation of a senior Taliban leader who led attacks in Kandahar province's Dand and Panjwai districts. An associate also was detained.

In other operations:

-- In an intelligence-driven operation in Kandahar province last night, a combined force captured a key Taliban leader believed to responsible for insurgent networks in Kandahar City and the province's Panjwai district. He is the 15th senior Taliban leader captured in the province in the last month and is linked to multiple bombings in Kandahar City, officials said.

-- A combined force in Farah province detained several suspected insurgents yesterday while targeting the Taliban leader for the Bala Boluk district, who reportedly has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks against civilians and against Afghan and coalition forces. Intelligence reports led the partnered force to a compound in the Bakwah district, where the force detained the suspects and found an automatic weapon.

-- In Paktika province's Orgun district last night, a partnered force acting on intelligence information detained a suspected insurgent last night while searching for a Haqqani terrorist network leader who has coordinated attacks against the Salerno and Chapman forward operating bases in Khost province.

-- Also last night, a combined force in Khost province found machine-gun ammunition and detained several people for questioning while looking for a Haqqani leader known for coordinating suicide-vest and vehicle-borne bomb attacks in the Sabari district.

-- In Logar province last night, a partnered force detained a suspected insurgent while looking for a senior Taliban leader operating in the Baraki Barak and Charkh districts.

-- Acting on intelligence information and tips from local residents, a combined force in Helmand province arrested a wanted senior Taliban leader yesterday. The suspect reportedly led about 300 fighters in the area and was appointed as leader of all Taliban forces in and around Marja. The force entered the targeted compound and detained at least 10 suspected insurgents without incident, but then became aware of four armed insurgents setting up an ambush to attack them as they departed. The force called in an airstrike that killed all four.

-- In Logar province's Pul-e Alam district yesterday, a partnered force acting on intelligence reports and local residents' tips found 220 pounds of homemade explosives, seven 82 mm mortar rounds electrically primed to explode, five Claymore mines wired to explode, a 60 mm mortar round and an anti-tank mine.

-- A Nov. 7 truck search by a coalition patrol in Helmand's Reg-e Khan Neshin district yielded more than 4,000 pounds of ammonium nitrate. The banned fertilizer is used in making roadside bombs. The three Afghan civilians in the truck were detained.

-- Multiple intelligence sources led to the arrest yesterday of a suspected weapons trafficker at Kabul International Airport. Afghan forces discovered the suspect had boarded an airplane which had taken off and was destined for Saudi Arabia. Authorities ordered it back to the airport, and upon its arrival, Afghan security forces boarded the plane. The suspect identified himself and was arrested without incident. As part of the Haqqani network, he was wanted for supplying weapons and ammunition used in attacks against Afghan and coalition forces. He also was known to have participated in numerous bombing attacks. Three other suspects traveling with the wanted man were detained, one of whom was wanted on an Afghan government warrant.

In other news from Afghanistan, ISAF officials said that despite senior Taliban leadership claims of protecting civilians, insurgent fighters were responsible for more than 100 Afghan civilian deaths and more than 200 civilian injuries last month.

"The insurgency continues to exhibit striking hypocrisy between their stated objective to protect civilian lives and their actions throughout Afghanistan," said Navy Rear Adm. Vic Beck, an ISAF spokesman. "Their message simply does not match the reality that every day, insurgents are deliberately killing, injuring and intimidating Afghan civilians."

Recent incidents of insurgent violence against Afghan civilians include:

-- Insurgents executed a truck driver Oct. 1 after he left an ISAF combat outpost in Kunar province's Darah-ye Pech district.

-- A series of explosions near an Afghan police checkpoint resulted in eight Afghan children killed and 23 Afghan civilians injured Oct. 5 in Kandahar province's Kandahar district. Ten of the injured civilians were children.

-- Two religious leaders in Kandar province were assassinated in mosques. A member of the Ulema religious council was killed Oct. 4, and a member of the Kandahar religious council was killed Oct. 10.

-- Ten civilians were killed and 10 others were injured Oct. 19 in Nimruz province's Khash Rod district when they inadvertently detonated an insurgent-planted roadside bomb.
 

Monday, November 8, 2010

Lending Practices

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) used the forum of its 2010 Conference in New Orleans to urge the lending industry to make things easier to qualified buyers to become homeowners. NAR appealed primarily to the public sector, i.e. FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, which it said account for more than 90 percent of the mortgage market, saying that lenders refuse to make loans without assurance that FHA will insure them or the GSEs will buy them.

Vicki Cox Golder, NAR President, said that the government agencies are impairing their own mission to provide mortgage liquidity to home buyers with unnecessarily restrictive limits on the availability of credit. "These policies are delaying recovery both of the housing market and the larger economy."

"Under current practices, many would-be home buyers who could responsibly, affordably become home owners are unable to do so," said Golder. "NAR wants to ensure that anyone who is able and willing to assume the responsibilities of owning a home should have the opportunity to pursue that dream."

NAR also called on FICO Corp. and private lenders to amend certain rules on the utilization of credit, how negative credit scores will affect future home purchases, and to change how they report and treat loan modification and payment plans. The Association also expressed its intentions to work with all public and private parties to encourage them to assess their credit policies on an ongoing basis.